On the same day as the attempted coup, the Myanmar Military announced its “Five-Point Road Map”. This outlined the strategy of the coup leaders - to replace the Union Election Commission with their own appointees and once firmly in power to conduct elections in accordance with the 2008 Constitution.  

This is the same play-book as the Military employed with the 2010 election.  And, like 2010, the Military will not leave the outcome of proposed election to the chance of a free and fair election.  It will ensure that the party backed by the Military will win. 

The Military is also using human rights abuses to ensure electoral victory.   This brief outlines three of the most egregious strategies they are using.  Myanmar Election Watch will update weekly on the human rights abuses being conducted by the Military which will impact the election. 

Strategy 1 - Executing and Arresting Political Activists

To the shock on the world, the Military conducted the execution of four political activists including Ko Jimmy on 25 July 2022.  The other activists executed were Phyo Zeya Thaw, Hla Myo Aung and Aung Thura Zaw.  

Many international actors, including the United Nations and ASEAN, attempted intervened to prevent the executions.  To no avail.  Min Aung Hlaing has a deadline of August 2023 for the election and needs to quell all political opposition before that date.  The price of political opposition could be death.  

The IIMM has stated that these executions are further evidence of the crimes against humanity being undertaken by the Military.

On the same day as the attempted coup, the Myanmar Military announced its “Five-Point Road Map”. This outlined the strategy of the coup leaders - to replace the Union Election Commission with their own appointees and once firmly in power to conduct elections in accordance with the 2008 Constitution.  

This is the same play-book as the Military employed with the 2010 election.  And, like 2010, the Military will not leave the outcome of proposed election to the chance of a free and fair election.  It will ensure that the party backed by the Military will win. 

The Military has also adopted a widespread policy of arresting political opponents, including the State Councillor Aung San Suu Kyi, political activists and even artists who have a voice.

Strategy 2 - Crushing the Independent Electoral Commission and De-registering Political Opponents 

Immediately after the attempted coup started, the Military started to arrest the members of the Union Election Commission (UEC).   One, Khun Maung Phyu, the Chair of the UEC in the Pinlaung Township, died whilst in custody.  

The military-appointed UEC issued a warning on 23 February 2022 that it would de-register the National League for Democracy (NLD) and the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD) if they did not physically go to the capital, Naypyidaw, controlled by the military and undergo an audit.  The SNLD refused for procedural reasons as audits are usually conducted at the site of the organisation and not in Naypyidaw.  The NLD refused on the grounds that the SAC-appointed UEC is illegal as they were not appointed in accordance with the Constitution.

Strategy 3 - Destroying the main opposition party, the NLD

In addition to the potential de-registering of the NLD as a political party, the Military has targeted the NLD through human rights abuses to ensure that the NLD is no longer an effective political opponent.

The NLD Central Working Committee issued an announcement on 10 May 2022 which notes that the systematic targeting of NLD includes the following:

• 914 NLD members had been arrested since the coup for a variety of alleged reasons, and as of that date 701 members were still in jail including the State Councillor, Aung San Suu Kyi

• 18 NLD have died in custody from torture or poor conditions of the jail

• 104 NLD offices had been attacked or destroyed

• 209 NLD members’ houses had been confiscated, including 120 MPs’ houses 

• 38 NLD members had been killed by the military or militias supporting the Military

Since the announcement there has been three more NLD members who have died in custody: Zaw Min Tun on 19 May 2022; Saw The Shwe on 28 May 2022 and Khin Nyo on 28 June 2022.  Many of the NLD members who died in custody were observed to have wounds consistent with torture. 

There have also been other egregious human rights abuses for people who possessed an NLD flag or had an NLD or National Unity Government symbol on their social media or phone.  For example, on 20 November 2021, the Military raided Ohnshit Kone Village in Leik Sin Taung Village Tract in Kyunhla Township, Sagaing Region. Two local villagers named Aung Lwin and San Ni @ Myint Aung were arrested for possessing an NLD flag. Their hands and waists were tied with a rope. They were pulled by the rope, to a field in the north of the village and shot.

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Conclusions

When taken together the three most egregious strategies are aimed at ensuring that there is no effective political opposition at the “elections” which the SAC are proposing to conduct in August 2023.  

In circumstances where there has been a targeted campaign to remove all political opposition, any such elections cannot be free and fair, nor democratic in any sense.  If the elections in 2023 are not free and fair then the people of Myanmar are unlikely to accept the outcome.  The elections will not result in peace or stability in Myanmar. 

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